Radjabov in 2020, Humpy in 2026: When FIDE Tells Players They Are Overreacting and History Proves Them Right

In March 2020, Teimour Radjabov told FIDE the Candidates Tournament was not safe. FIDE told him he was wrong. The tournament started anyway. Seven rounds later, Russia closed its borders and the event was suspended for 13 months. In March 2026, Koneru Humpy told FIDE the Women's Candidates Tournament was not safe. FIDE told her the venue was fine. She withdrew. The tournament has not started yet. But the pattern is unmistakable. This is a story about what happens when chess players see danger before the governing body does, and what it costs them to say so. ## Yekaterinburg, 2020: Radjabov Sees It Coming By early March 2020, COVID-19 was spreading fast. Italy was in lockdown. The WHO had not yet declared a pandemic, but the trajectory was clear to anyone paying attention. The FIDE Candidates Tournament was scheduled to begin March 17 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, bringing together eight of the strongest players in the world for a month-long competition. Teimour Radjabov, the Azerbaijani grandmaster who had earned his spot through the Chess World Cup, asked FIDE to postpone. FIDE refused. On March 6, Radjabov withdrew. What happened next was telling. FIDE announced Radjabov had withdrawn for "personal reasons." Radjabov immediately disputed this on Instagram: "It is not correct, I have no personal reasons to withdraw." He revealed that FIDE had given him a midnight deadline to confirm participation, warning they would consider him withdrawn if he did not reply. He noted that "whether I would reply or not, I would have been replaced IN ANY CASE." Maxime Vachier-Lagrave took his spot. The tournament began on schedule. For about nine days, FIDE could claim Radjabov had overreacted. Then Russia announced it was closing its borders. The Candidates was suspended after Round 7 on March 26, 2020. It would not resume until April 19, 2021, over 13 months later, making it the longest over-the-board chess tournament in modern history. Ian Nepomniachtchi eventually won. But the story everyone remembered was Radjabov: the player who was right, who was punished for being right, and who had to wait over a year for FIDE to acknowledge it. In June 2021, FIDE granted Radjabov a direct spot in the 2022 Candidates Tournament as compensation. It was the right call, but it came 15 months too late. ## Paphos, 2026: Humpy Says No Fast forward six years. The 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament is scheduled for Paphos, Cyprus, running March 29 to April 16. The security context is different from 2020, but the dynamic is identical. On March 2, 2026, a suspected Iranian drone struck the British RAF Akrotiri military base on Cyprus' southern coast, part of the broader fallout from US-Israel strikes on Iran that began February 28. The U.S. State Department elevated Cyprus to a Level 3 travel advisory: "reconsider travel." The U.S. Embassy authorized departure of non-emergency staff. Australia issued similar guidance. Koneru Humpy, one of the strongest women in chess history and a qualified Candidates player, looked at the situation and made her decision. She withdrew, stating: "No event, no matter how important, can come before personal safety and well-being. Despite the assurances provided, I do not feel fully secure." FIDE CEO Emil Sutovsky responded that there is nothing "remotely dangerous" about the Paphos location, noting that it sits on the western coast of Cyprus, roughly 100 kilometers from the Akrotiri strike. FIDE says it has contingency plans and has identified alternative flight routes. Ukrainian GM Anna Muzychuk was named as Humpy's replacement. Reports from the Times of India suggest FIDE's council may impose a EUR 10,000 fine on Humpy for withdrawing, though that decision remains pending. ## The Parallel Is Not Subtle GM Vasif Durarbayli, himself Azerbaijani like Radjabov, drew the connection explicitly: "Remember when Radjabov dropped out of the 2020 Candidates because of COVID? Everyone said he was overreacting. Then the tournament got suspended halfway through." The structural similarities are hard to ignore: A player identifies a legitimate external threat. FIDE dismisses the concern and insists the tournament will proceed as planned. The player withdraws. FIDE frames the withdrawal in the most neutral terms possible. A replacement is found. The chess world debates whether the player was brave or dramatic. The only question that matters is the one that cannot be answered yet: will the 2026 tournament finish without incident, or will it be interrupted like 2020? Hikaru Nakamura, competing in the Open Candidates, has already flagged concerns from Cyprus, reporting power outages and infrastructure issues. He has not withdrawn. But the fact that a player of his stature is publicly noting problems, combined with Humpy's decision, suggests the unease extends well beyond one person's calculation. ## Chess Has Always Been Tangled in Geopolitics This is not new. The Candidates Tournament, and world championship cycle more broadly, has been disrupted by political forces since its creation. In 1972, Bobby Fischer threatened to boycott the World Championship in Reykjavik over playing conditions and prize money. It took a personal phone call from U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and a ,000 donation from a British financier to keep him in the match. After Viktor Korchnoi defected from the Soviet Union in 1976, the Soviets imposed a blanket boycott on any tournament that invited him. That boycott lasted until 1981, effectively splitting the chess world. In 1983, a Candidates match between Garry Kasparov and Korchnoi in Pasadena was forfeited when the USSR refused to allow Kasparov to travel. The match was eventually renegotiated and moved to London. Every generation of chess produces its version of this conflict: the game wants to exist outside politics, but the venues, the funding, and the players exist firmly inside it. ## FIDE's Reactive Playbook What the 2020 and 2026 situations reveal is that FIDE does not have a proactive safety framework. The FIDE Handbook includes security arrangements as a required component of tournament planning, but it contains no specific policy establishing thresholds for when a venue should be relocated due to conflict or instability. Both situations followed the same playbook: dismiss concerns, insist the event will proceed, then deal with the consequences if and when they arrive. In 2020, the consequence was a 13-month suspension and a compensation spot for Radjabov. In 2026, the consequence so far is one player lost and significant public criticism. The compensation question looms. If the 2026 Candidates encounters a disruption, power failure, airspace closure, escalated conflict, the Radjabov precedent is sitting right there. FIDE gave him a spot in the next Candidates cycle because it had to acknowledge he was right. If Humpy ends up being right too, will she get the same treatment? ## The Cost of Being Right Early Radjabov's story has a resolution. He was vindicated, compensated, and competed in the 2022 Candidates. But that resolution took 15 months. During those 15 months, he watched from the outside as a tournament he earned the right to play in stumbled through a pandemic, while the player who replaced him got seven rounds of Candidates experience. Humpy's story does not have a resolution yet. She has made her choice. She has accepted the potential fine and the certainty of watching someone else play in her seat. If the tournament finishes smoothly, she will be remembered as the player who walked away from a Candidates spot. If something goes wrong, she will be remembered as the player who saw it coming. Either way, the lesson for FIDE is the same one Radjabov taught them six years ago: when a player tells you they do not feel safe, listen. Because the track record of dismissing those concerns is not good. The Women's Candidates begins March 29. The Open Candidates begins March 28. Both in Paphos. Both under a Level 3 travel advisory from the United States. Both proceeding as planned. We will know soon enough whether history is repeating itself or rhyming.